The monsoon is probably going to be postponed for the current year as its landing expected on June 6, five days after its typical beginning date, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.
“This year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed,” the IMD said.
“The southwest monsoon onset is likely to set over Kerala on 6th June with a model error of plus or minus 4 days.”
“Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May 18-19,” it added.
Monsoon To Hit Kerala Coast On 4th June: IMD
The typical beginning date for monsoon over Kerala is June 1, which also denotes the official initiation of the four-month rainy season.
The IMD and private climate office Skynet were consistent on the forecast of the late entry of monsoon this year. The Skymet had said on Tuesday that the monsoon would hit the Kerala coast on June 4, with an error margin of two days.
In the event that the monsoon arrives late, it will be third such occasion since 2014 when it touched base on June 5, trailed by June 6 of every 2015 and June 8 out of 2016.
The postponement in the landing of monsoon may not really affect the overall rainfall. A year ago, it had hit Kerala on May 29, three days before the actual starting date. However, the nation got ‘below-normal’ precipitation.
Likewise, in 2017, the rainstorm touched base in Kerala on May 30, yet the overall rainfall was 95 percent of the significant lot normal (LPA), which falls under the below normal category.
In its initial forecast announced in April, the IMD had anticipated a near-normal rainfall with an LPA of 96 percent, which falls on the outskirt of ‘below normal’ and ‘typical’ rainfall class. Then again, the Skymet has anticipated a ‘below normal’ rainfall with an LPA of 93 percent.